Learning Center
What are Forecast and Event Contracts?
Forecast and event contracts enable investors to trade their opinion on specific yes-or-no questions on economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index and the Fed Funds Rate, global climate indicators including temperatures and atmospheric CO2, key futures markets including energy, metals, and equity indexes.
How Do Forecast and Event Contracts Work?
For each contract you hold that expires "in the money", in reference to the settlement value,
you receive a fixed payout.
Pick Your Market
Choose from ForecastEx forecast contracts on economic indicators, global climate events, or CME event contracts on futures markets.
Trade Yes or No
Trade YES or NO positions based on your view of whether the event will happen. The "YES" price is determined by the probability that an event will happen.
Generate income based on your insights
You can earn the difference between the purchase price and the closing price for each contract you own.
| Contract Specs | ForecastEx | CME |
|---|---|---|
|
Markets |
US Economic Indicators or Global Climate Events |
Select Futures markets |
|
Market hours |
Monday through Friday Sunday through Thursday |
All Contracts: CME Globex Pre Open: Sunday 4:00 - 5:00 p.m. Monday - Thursday 4:45 - 5:00 p.m. ECES; ECNQ; ECRTY; ECYM; ECBTC EC6E ECSI ECHG ECCL; ECNG Next Day's Event Contract will list at 5:00 p.m. All times are in Central Prevailing Time (CPT) |
|
Contract term |
Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, Yearly |
Daily |
|
Price quotation |
USD |
USD |
|
Contract size |
1 contract = $1.00 |
1 contract = $100.00 |
|
Minimum price increment |
$0.01 |
$1.00 |
|
Final settlement |
$0 or $1.00 |
$0 or $100.00 |
Forecast Contracts by ForecastEx LLC
Forecast contracts by ForecastEx LLC let you trade your view on the outcomes of various US economic events and global climate events.
Each contract pays USD 1.00 and your max profit per contract is USD 1.00 minus the contract cost. ForecastEx forecast contracts are quoted in USD 0.01 increments.
| Indicator | Source Agency | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
|
US Fed Funds Target Rate |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
Irregular |
|
US Consumer Sentiment |
University of Michigan |
Monthly |
|
US Housing Starts |
U.S. Census Bureau |
Monthly |
|
US Retail Sales |
U.S. Census Bureau |
Monthly |
|
US Building Permits |
U.S. Census Bureau |
Monthly |
|
US Consumer Price Index |
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Monthly |
|
US Payroll Employment |
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Monthly |
|
US Unemployment Rate |
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Monthly |
|
US Corporate Profits |
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis |
Quarterly |
|
US Initial Jobless Claims |
U.S. Department of Labor |
Weekly |
|
US National Debt |
U.S. Treasury |
Yearly |
|
US Real GDP |
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis |
Quarterly |
|
Global Temperature |
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |
Yearly |
|
US Temperature |
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |
Yearly |
|
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide |
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |
Yearly |
Additional information on Forecast Contracts
is available from ForecastEx
Visit ForecastEx
Example Forecast Contract Trade
“Will the US Consumer Price Index
be > 313 this month?”
Last month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 314.069
For the “Will the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) be > 313 this month?” forecast contract: YES is trading at USD 0.55. NO is trading at USD 0.49.
This indicates the market is assigning a 55% probability the US CPI will be above 313 this month and an 49% probability the US CPI will be below 313 this month.
You believe the US CPI will be above 313 and decide to buy 20 YES event contracts at USD 0.55 per contract for a total cost of USD 11.00
The US CPI comes in above 313 so each of your YES contracts has a fixed payout of USD 1.00.
You receive USD 1.00 for each YES for a total of USD 20.00. Since you paid USD 11.00 for the 20 YES contracts and commissions are USD 0.00 your profit on this trade is USD 9.00.
ForecastTrader Educational Resources
Market Commentary and Analysis
Commentary, analysis, and insight on US economic indicators from Interactive Brokers’ senior economist Jose Torres.
Market Calendar
Trader’s Academy Courses
Learn About Key Economic Events
As a trader, you will come across many factors that you must consider before entering or exiting the markets. Some of the most important aspects to look for are economic events that can move the markets drastically one way or another.
Monetary Measures, Economic Output and Corporate Profits (US)
This course covers the central banking system, the government bond system, fiscal budgets, economic growth calculations, and corporate profitability's importance. Some of the indicators include the money supply, yield curve, gross domestic product, and corporate profits.
Course Lessons:
Business and Consumer Activity and Confidence (US)
This course covers indicators that provide insight into economic activity and confidence like confidence, sales, incomes, production, and more.
Course Lessons:
- Purchasing Managers’ Index for Manufacturing
- Consumer Price Index
- Industrial Production
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Consumer Confidence
- Retail Sales
Employment and the Labor Market (US)
This course explores a variety of labor market indicators that shed light on the composition of human work like participation, unemployment, employment, and wages.
Course Lessons:
- Labor Force Participation
- Payroll Employment
- Unemployment Claims
- Unemployment Rate
- Average Hourly Workweek
- Average Hourly Earnings
Construction and Real Estate (US)
This course covers indicators that track the real estate market and its many different aspects such as mortgage rates, mortgage applications, spending, prices, shovels in the ground, permitting and more.
Course Lessons:
CME Event Contracts
CME event contracts let you trade your view on whether the price of key futures markets will move up or down by the end of each day's trading session.
Each contract pays USD 100.00 and your max profit per contract is USD 100.00 minus the contract cost, fees and commissions. CME event contracts are quoted in USD 1.00 increments.
View all CME event contracts, and to trade simply choose YES or NO.
Additional information on CME Event Contracts
is available from the CME Group
Visit CME Group
Example Event Contract Trade
“Will Gold close above USD 2,035.00 today?”
Gold starts trading at
USD 2,035.00
For the “Will Gold close above USD 2,035.00 today?” event contract: YES is trading at USD 19. NO is trading at USD 84.
This indicates the market is assigning a 19% probability that Gold will close above USD 2,035.00 today and an 84% probability that Gold will close below USD 2,035.00 today.
You believe Gold will close above USD 2,035.00 and decide to buy 2 YES event contracts at USD 19 per contract.
Gold closes at USD 2,085.00 so each of your YES contracts has a fixed payout of USD 100.00.
You receive USD 100.00 for each YES for a total of USD 200.00. Since you paid USD 38.00 for the 2 YES and commissions are USD 0.20 (USD 0.10 per contract) your profit on this trade is USD 161.80.
ForecastTrader Educational Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
Interested in Trading Event Contracts
at Interactive Brokers?
Already an Interactive Brokers Client?
Interactive Brokers clients can use their existing login credentials to access IBKR ForecastTrader.
If you already have Futures trading permission, you are permissioned for Forecast and Event Contracts. If you do not have Futures trading permission but would like to trade Forecast and Event Contracts:
- Log in to Portal
- Select User ("head/shoulders") > Settings
- Under Trading, select Trading Permissions
- Select Forecast and Event Contracts – Request
- Select Request Permissions
- Read and acknowledge legal documents and disclosures
- Select OK
Trading permissions are usually approved overnight.
New to Interactive Brokers? Open an Account.
Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR) is an automated global electronic broker that serves individual investors, hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, registered investment advisors and introducing brokers.
Our four-decade focus on technology and automation allows us to provide our clients with a uniquely sophisticated, low-cost global platform for managing investments.
Our clients enjoy low-cost access to stocks, options, futures, currencies, bonds and funds from a single unified platform.
Forecast and event contracts can only be traded on the IBKR ForecastTrader website. Open positions in forecast and event contracts can be viewed in your portfolio in Client Portal, TWS, IBKR Mobile, IBKR GlobalTrader and IBKR Desktop.
Forecast and event contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. and Interactive Brokers Australia Pty. Ltd.